Insights
Research and philosophical posts on risk management, tail hedging, scenario design, and options markets.
Latest Research
Goldman's Tail Hedging Analysis Is Right About the Direction. Building the Implementation Stack Beneath It.
Goldman's framing is directionally right. The implementation stack that sits beneath the model is where programs actually live or die.
Your Real Balance Sheet: When "Diversified" Stops Feeling That Way
You discover that what felt like diversification was actually concentration in 'the economy is healthy.' When conditions change, the independence fades.
The Quiet Tax: Why Most Hedge Programs Die of Boredom
Most hedge programs don't fail during crashes. They fail during the two years before the crash, when everything is calm and the hedge looks like a line item that accomplishes nothing.
The Pain of Giving It Back
You made money. Then you watched it leave. That's not the same as never having made it. Your brain knows the difference.
Loss Aversion is the Constraint
The portfolio you abandon is the portfolio you do not own. The hard part is building a risk program someone can actually stay with under pressure.
A governance checklist for options overlays
The strategy is the easy part. Governance determines whether it survives contact with reality.
More research notes on the way.
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